Do seasonal jobs become permanent? 9 seasons of payroll data

How retail employment in January and April compares with October

BLS counts payroll jobs each month in its Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey of about 119,000 businesses and government agencies. The table compares its retail counts for December, January and April with the October before. They are not seasonally adjusted: they keep the holiday swing that BLS removes from its headline figures.[7][1]

In the most recent season, retail employment rose by a net 362,600 jobs from October to December 2025. January 2026 was 78,900 jobs below October, and April 2026 was 102,800 below. The 2019 to 2020 April figure reflects the spring of the pandemic.[1]

Part of each gap is retail's own trend, not the holidays. Its October level drifted down from 15,762,600 jobs in 2017 to 15,444,500 in 2025. General merchandise retailers, one part of retail, rose by a net 139,300 jobs by December 2025. They were 7,800 below October in January and 47,600 below in April.[1][2]

A second BLS survey, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), counts the end of a seasonal job as a layoff or discharge. Retailers reported 211,000 layoffs and discharges in January 2026, not seasonally adjusted, more than in any later month through August (preliminary). It was also the lowest January count of the 10 from 2017 to 2026: the 9 earlier Januaries ranged from 243,000 to 411,000.[6][5]

Courier, delivery and warehouse jobs after the holidays

Courier and messenger employment stays high through January: it was above its October level in all 9 Januaries, by 1,500 to 128,200 jobs. Then it falls back. February 2026 was already 27,800 jobs below October 2025, and April 2026 was 41,800 below.[3]

The spring drop came even though the industry grew. Its October employment rose from 674,100 jobs in 2017 to 1,064,300 in 2025. Only the 2017 to 2018 season ended April above October, by 3,300 jobs.[3]

Warehousing and storage rose by a net 1,700 jobs from October to December 2025. In the 8 seasons before, the change ranged from a fall of 11,200 jobs (2022) to a rise of 79,700 (2020). April 2026 was 60,200 jobs below October 2025.[4]

What payroll data can and cannot tell you about seasonal jobs

The CES counts jobs, not people. A worker on 2 payrolls is counted twice. A net change cannot show whether a seasonal worker or a new hire holds a January job. April is a fixed comparison point, not a measure of holiday jobs kept: the gap also carries each industry's trend and spring hiring.[7]

The figures are estimates from a sample, so read small changes, such as the 1,500 courier jobs of the 2023 season, with care. BLS revises them once a year against unemployment insurance records, and single industries can move more than the total. In the revision published February 11, 2026, BLS changed its March 2025 count, not seasonally adjusted, by -0.5% for all nonfarm jobs. Retail moved -0.8%, and transportation and warehousing, the sector that includes couriers, moved -1.1%.[7][8]

BLS introduces that annual revision with its January data, so the next one comes on February 5, 2027. October 2025 data came late: BLS published them with November's, after the 2025 lapse in federal funding.[8][10][9]

What this means if you take a seasonal job in 2026

The National Retail Federation (NRF), a retail trade group, forecasts 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal hires by retailers this holiday season. It estimates 356,000 seasonal jobs in 2025. Those are an NRF forecast and estimate, not a government count.[11]

To put seasonal hiring in context, compare the 2026 job market and what government layoff data measures.

BLS publishes January 2027 payroll data on February 5, 2027. That release gives January 2027 payroll counts by industry.[10]