Career Advice & News Center

Some anxious Americans have consulted just about every newspaper, website, almanac and psychic for an indication about the future health of the U.S. economy. While a variety of analytic methods may differ in their projections for the job market, fluctuations in the number of job postings appearing online seem a likely touchstone, as the internet has become the most popular media for applications.

Job seekers and executives alike are hoping that the results of the Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series (HWOL) report released today, which reveals a dramatic increase in employment positions advertised online, constitute a forecast of hiring trends for the new year.

According to the report, the average number of job vacancies posted online each month in 2009 was 3,357,000, which represents a 1.1 million drop-off from the 2008 average, and 1.3 million decrease from 2007.

Since hitting a low point in April 2009, the online job totals have risen at a rate of slightly less than 60,000 per month.

However, in December, advertised vacancies rose by a noteworthy 255,000, reaching 3,642,000 at year's end.

"Employer's modest increase in demand for labor in the second half of 2009 is a nice way to end what has been a very challenging year," said Gad Levanon, a senior economist at The Conference Board.

He added, "The gap between the number of unemployed and the number of advertised vacancies is still very high, but the recent six months indicate that things are slowly moving in the right direction."

By the numbers

Of note, the five most populous Southern states experienced gains, including Texas, which saw an increase of 22,100 job postings in December, more than twice its November gain; Virginia, which underwent its first increase since August; and Florida whose businesses posted about 13,000 more jobs. The Southern states collected the largest December gains in advertised vacancies among any U.S. region.

The HWOL report furthermore indicated that there are about 4.5 unemployed workers for every online, down from about 4.8 in October. Michigan continues to reign as the state with the least favorable supply/demand rate (10.3 unemployed workers per posting), followed by Mississippi (9.0), Kentucky (7.5), Indiana (6.5), Florida (6.07) and Ohio (6.03).

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Nebraska, Alaska and Virginia are all home to fewer than two unemployed workers for each job opportunity advertised online.

By occupation, healthcare practitioner and technical positions saw the largest gains in available positions with an additional 45,100 jobs in December. Also increasing were the availability of office and administrative support, management and sales jobs.

Filling in the gaps

Despite the vast jumps in advertised vacancies in most regions and several industries, many market analysts believe that heavy debts and difficulties securing loans will prevent most small- and medium-sized businesses from achieving optimal growth in 2010.

Russ Koesterich, the head of investment strategy equities at the assets management firm Blackrock, told the San Francisco Chronicle that "the economy is on the mend, but it's likely to be a subpar recovery."

He added, "Normally you come out of a recession because the Fed is lowering rates, which leads to greater spending. That's not the case this time. Consumer spending will be less than normal coming out of recession because the consumer is carrying too much debt."

Echoing Koesterich's sentiments, a total of 49 percent of economists who responded to a survey by the Turnaround Management Association felt that a sustainable improvement in America's distressed industries is unachievable until at least the second half of 2010.