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Early reports are predicting a loss in private sector jobs for August
Date: 09/01/2010
By: Will Jacobs
By: Will Jacobs
The economy has a long way to go in terms of improvement, as many Americans are waiting for a sign that there will be more jobs available to them. Each month, the Department of Labor releases statistics that show how the country has fared the previous month in terms of job creation. All eyes are on the private sector to create jobs, as the U.S. Census has been shedding a number of positions following the end of its decennial survey. While the beginning of the year started out strong in terms of hiring within the private sector, the past three months have seen a tremendous slowdown in an economic improvement.
After months of job creating numbers that were in the hundreds of thousands, June began to see a lull by adding 83,000 jobs with July doing worse, only adding 71,000 positions. According to the Wall Street Journal, early estimates of the August job report, which is expected to be released on September 3rd, are predicting that the private sector actually lost jobs, rather than experiencing gains. Automatic Data Processing Incorporated (ADP) revealed that the number of private sector jobs fell by more than 10,000 last month. This is likely crushing news for economists, as many had predicted that the ADP would reveal a jobs gain of 17,000 for the month of August.
Because of this loss in the private sector, preliminary estimates are suggesting that after two consecutive months at 9.5 percent, the unemployment rate will edge up to 9.6 percent for the month of August.
One positive note from the report was that the manufacturing industry continued to improve after being drastically affected during the brunt of the recession in 2008 and 2009. The Journal reports that August represented the 13th consecutive month of growth for the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index, which climbed to 56.3 from 55.5.
Analysts have credited this surprising number of cuts to the fact that many employers are concerned over the longevity of the economy, which is why many are still unsure of whether they should be hiring or not, according to BusinessWeek.
"The labor market is really in peril as businesses are just being very cautious," David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, the only expert surveyed to accurately forecast the loss in private jobs, told the news provider. "[Today's figures] will drag down expectations for the Friday payrolls report. The stability surrounding the recovery is declining."
Many economists are frustrated with the report, because this shows that the country is going in the wrong direction in terms of improvement. Overall, the news source reports that payrolls fell by approximately 100,000 during the month of August.
"This number is disappointing and maybe even a little disconcerting," Joel Prakken, chairman of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, which produces the figures with ADP, said on a conference call with reporters. "The weakness was pretty much across the board. Employment is going to be lethargic through the second half of the year."
This troubling economic news comes after a recent report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which indicated that since its inception in January 2009, the stimulus package has added more than 3.3 million jobs to out of work Americans, according to the Washington Post. Analysts for the CBO reveal that the federal funding is responsible for lowering the unemployment rate between 0.7 and 1.8 percentage points. There are currently 14.6 million American citizens out of work.
After months of job creating numbers that were in the hundreds of thousands, June began to see a lull by adding 83,000 jobs with July doing worse, only adding 71,000 positions. According to the Wall Street Journal, early estimates of the August job report, which is expected to be released on September 3rd, are predicting that the private sector actually lost jobs, rather than experiencing gains. Automatic Data Processing Incorporated (ADP) revealed that the number of private sector jobs fell by more than 10,000 last month. This is likely crushing news for economists, as many had predicted that the ADP would reveal a jobs gain of 17,000 for the month of August.
Because of this loss in the private sector, preliminary estimates are suggesting that after two consecutive months at 9.5 percent, the unemployment rate will edge up to 9.6 percent for the month of August.
One positive note from the report was that the manufacturing industry continued to improve after being drastically affected during the brunt of the recession in 2008 and 2009. The Journal reports that August represented the 13th consecutive month of growth for the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index, which climbed to 56.3 from 55.5.
Analysts have credited this surprising number of cuts to the fact that many employers are concerned over the longevity of the economy, which is why many are still unsure of whether they should be hiring or not, according to BusinessWeek.
"The labor market is really in peril as businesses are just being very cautious," David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, the only expert surveyed to accurately forecast the loss in private jobs, told the news provider. "[Today's figures] will drag down expectations for the Friday payrolls report. The stability surrounding the recovery is declining."
Many economists are frustrated with the report, because this shows that the country is going in the wrong direction in terms of improvement. Overall, the news source reports that payrolls fell by approximately 100,000 during the month of August.
"This number is disappointing and maybe even a little disconcerting," Joel Prakken, chairman of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, which produces the figures with ADP, said on a conference call with reporters. "The weakness was pretty much across the board. Employment is going to be lethargic through the second half of the year."
This troubling economic news comes after a recent report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which indicated that since its inception in January 2009, the stimulus package has added more than 3.3 million jobs to out of work Americans, according to the Washington Post. Analysts for the CBO reveal that the federal funding is responsible for lowering the unemployment rate between 0.7 and 1.8 percentage points. There are currently 14.6 million American citizens out of work.
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